GUIDE TO QUOTATIONS: ........ ... ... ... . .. ...GUIDE TO QUOTATIONS: ..
HOW QUOTATIONS ORIGINAT..................................... XX.....WHY THE QUOTATIONS CHANGE?...

HOW QUOTATIONS ORIGINATE

The player often considers the bet as an equal game; now we are going to see how quotations originate. Probabilities the bookmaker offers do not respect the real probabilities of the events. Why? It's obviuos that the bookmaker must have some profit. Now we are going to analyse the bookmakers's book.

In order to find out the probability of a soccer match, the bookmaker first tries to estimate the probability of victory of the home team, of the draw and the probability of victory of the guest team. The second step is to lower these probabilities in a way in which the bookmaker is sure he will have a profit.

The deposit % shows us the percentage the bookmaker hopes to gain. The bookmaker which does not want to have any profit, will naturally pay back the 100% of the total number of bets, but since he has to gain money, he will only pay back the 85-90% of the total number of bets.

The book (that is the percentage of quotations of every single bet) is calculated overworking the following method:

Deposit =100:
100/ home team quotation+ 100/ draw quotation + 100/ guest team quotation

Example of a soccer match:
Considering the match between Inter and Milan the bookmaker offers the following probabilities:
Home team wins: 2.34
Draw: 3.05
Guest team wins: 2.80
The bookmaker's book quotation is the following one:

Deposit = 1= 0.900
100/2.34 + 100/3.05 + 100/2.80

As a consequence, the payment % for the match between Inter and Milan is 90.0%

The bookmaker will pay back the 90% of the total number of bets he accepted on this match. That means that he has a profit of 10%.

Calculating the possible profit is usefull when you compare different bookmakers quotations. Moreover it allows us to know the possible profit the bookmaker will have