RED AND BLACK

One of the most common opinion about 30-40 is that the composition of the pack can affect the probability about the exit of red and black. Obviously it is just myth, but in spite of that, this thought is so diffused even between game "experts". The great mathematician E.Thorp (The fundamental theorem of card-counting with application to Trente et Quarante" International journal of game theory, 1973) demonstrated that these two chances are both probable in the same way. Prof. Fabrizio Mauro demostrated it too, in a way that we can now adfirm, without any denial, that no pack composition can bring any mathematical advantage to one of these two chances. Following our phylosophy we won't clear, now, the complex mathematical demonstration, which maybe, not everyone will be able to understand, but we'are going to bring a simple example that will clear any doubt.

Let's analyse an "extreme" case concerning a pack which is impossible to lose whit.

In this pack we have a 10 and a 3. The 3 can move in 8 different positions, having the same probability. Let's see these positions and scores and results of the blow we are considering:

Note: N (noir) = Black // R (rouge) = Red


Now we have to analyse what happens in EVERY SINGLE CASE:.

1st case: B winning
2nd case: B winning
3rd case: B winning
4th case: B winning
5th case: R winning
6th case: R winning
7th case: R winning
8th case: R winning

Obviously perfect equality: both chances in this case, as in any other case, have got the same probability. Technically we talk about symmetry (S).

This demonstrates that any kind of counter based on Red and Black game, has got no value.